Dorian - Wed Aug 28 05:00:33 CDT 2019

In a nutshell:

1) Track has slowed, confidence in track has decreased.
2) Forecast strength, September 1st/2nd strength has increased, but still on the low side of the model guidance. Confidence in strength forecast is increasing.
3) Small eyewall is forming.

1) Track information and analysis:

Prior track forecast had the storm crossed over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico by September 1st.  Current guidance places Dorian lingering off the east coast of Florida on September 2nd.  The guidance models, which previously were in strong agreement have now diverged.  Consequently, the accuracy of the 5-Day track is believed to be low.  Dorian has become unpredictable in its location on Day 5, September 2nd, location.  However, the slowing of the storm is a significant development in that it allows for the strength forecast to become intensified.

2) Max winds information and analysis:

Earlier forecast winds on September 1st, 2 am EST and 2nd, 2am EST were at 70 and 75 MPH, respectfully.  They have now increased to 100 MPH, each.  The 100 MPH winds are firmly in the Category 2 status.  However, the guidance models predict maximum sustained winds higher than 100 MPH, so an increase in the forecast strength prior to September 2nd is expected.

Watching the slideshow, a noticeable compression of the track is shown between the last two slides.  Historically, compression of the track indicates a predicted slowing and strengthening of the storm, as is echoed in the track and intensity discussions.

While the current available information from NOAA is better news for the Gulf of Mexico concerns, Florida and the Eastern Atlantic coasts are now firmly in Dorian's crosshairs.

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Color imagery from NOAA of the Caribbean
Color imagery from NOAA of the Caribbean

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Dorian - Sun Aug 25 05:24:19 DST 2019

Although there are many days before Dorian could possibly threaten the Gulf, I'm watching it. Historically, storms the pass north of Cuba don't threaten Louisiana. Where those that pass along Cuba or south of Cuba strike Louisiana, or the Texas coast, which also poses a threat of flooding, depending on the size of the storm. Storms that form at the current location either become monsters or they implode, leaving nothing but moisture in the air.

Below are the 5 day estimates from 10 pm last night and 4 am this morning. Something to note is the decrease in estimated strength from 80 mph to 70 mph. This indicates the overall forecast is weakening. However, the storm has a way to go before Gulf Coast forecasting can be done with any degree of accuracy.

We should be in a sit, wait and be aware posture.

--
INIT  25/0300Z 10.9N  50.4W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1200Z 11.2N  52.0W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0000Z 11.7N  54.1W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1200Z 12.5N  56.2W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0000Z 13.2N  58.2W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/0000Z 15.0N  62.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0000Z 17.0N  66.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
120H  30/0000Z 19.0N  70.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
--
INIT  25/0900Z 11.0N  51.6W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  25/1800Z 11.3N  53.3W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  26/0600Z 11.8N  55.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  26/1800Z 12.4N  57.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  27/0600Z 13.2N  59.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  28/0600Z 15.2N  63.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 96H  29/0600Z 17.1N  67.6W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  30/0600Z 19.5N  71.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

Dorian Sun Aug 25 05:24:19 DST 2019
Dorian Sun Aug 25 05:24:19 DST 2019

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