In a nutshell:
1) Track has slowed, confidence in track has decreased.
2) Forecast strength, September 1st/2nd strength has increased, but still on the low side of the model guidance. Confidence in strength forecast is increasing.
3) Small eyewall is forming.
1) Track information and analysis:
Prior track forecast had the storm crossed over Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico by September 1st. Current guidance places Dorian lingering off the east coast of Florida on September 2nd. The guidance models, which previously were in strong agreement have now diverged. Consequently, the accuracy of the 5-Day track is believed to be low. Dorian has become unpredictable in its location on Day 5, September 2nd, location. However, the slowing of the storm is a significant development in that it allows for the strength forecast to become intensified.
2) Max winds information and analysis:
Earlier forecast winds on September 1st, 2 am EST and 2nd, 2am EST were at 70 and 75 MPH, respectfully. They have now increased to 100 MPH, each. The 100 MPH winds are firmly in the Category 2 status. However, the guidance models predict maximum sustained winds higher than 100 MPH, so an increase in the forecast strength prior to September 2nd is expected.
Watching the slideshow, a noticeable compression of the track is shown between the last two slides. Historically, compression of the track indicates a predicted slowing and strengthening of the storm, as is echoed in the track and intensity discussions.
While the current available information from NOAA is better news for the Gulf of Mexico concerns, Florida and the Eastern Atlantic coasts are now firmly in Dorian's crosshairs.