- Model divergence beginning on Sunday (Day 3), Gulf of Mexico entry increasingly a concern
- Maximum intensity now forecast to be 140 mph (Category 4), with storm maintaining Category 3 status inland.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0900Z 23.8N 69.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 30/1800Z 24.8N 70.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 31/0600Z 25.6N 72.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 31/1800Z 26.1N 73.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 01/0600Z 26.4N 75.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 72H 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.3W 120 KT 140 MPH 96H 03/0600Z 26.9N 80.1W 115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND 120H 04/0600Z 28.1N 81.4W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND
NOAA is reporting here the computer models begin to diverge on Day 3, which is currently landfall, Sept. 3. Where before, the computer models began to diverge on days 4 & 5. The increased uncertainty should raise concern for the Southern Gulf Coast and Panhandle areas of Florida. This storm is a major Category 4 storm, fed by 85+° F Gulf Stream and in some places 90°F water. NOAA is citing several weather patterns they are tracking responsible for the extreme difficulty in track forecasting.
As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane. -- 11 PM Discussion, NOAA
It would seem that we will have to watch this storm play-by-play until final landfall. The most destructive force to the storm would be to trail inland Florida and into Georgia. However, the danger to life and property with a storm this size is extreme. Various news outlets are considering the possibility Dorian will be the largest storm to have made landfall in Florida since Andrew.
There is a small amount of discussion over the intensity forecast. There is a possibility Dorian will ingest dry air from the North, causing it not to grow as strong. However, the weaker model still places it as a major cyclone on landfall.
Dorian forces of destruction will include tidal surge, massive rainfall, excessively strong sustained winds. Mass power-outages and cessation of multiple services can be expected. Category 4 is no joke. If you are in the path of this storm, may God be with you. If you can, leave.
Below are slideshows of the growth of the storm as well as collected Satellite Images.