Dorian - Fri Aug 30 05:27:41 CDT 2019 - Track Unpredictable

  • Model divergence beginning on Sunday (Day 3), Gulf of Mexico entry increasingly a concern
  • Maximum intensity now forecast to be 140 mph (Category 4), with storm maintaining Category 3 status inland.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  30/0900Z 23.8N  69.1W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  30/1800Z 24.8N  70.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 24H  31/0600Z 25.6N  72.0W  105 KT 120 MPH
 36H  31/1800Z 26.1N  73.8W  110 KT 125 MPH
 48H  01/0600Z 26.4N  75.5W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  02/0600Z 26.7N  78.3W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  03/0600Z 26.9N  80.1W  115 KT 130 MPH...INLAND
120H  04/0600Z 28.1N  81.4W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

NOAA is reporting here the computer models begin to diverge on Day 3, which is currently landfall, Sept. 3.  Where before, the computer models began to diverge on days 4 & 5.  The increased uncertainty should raise concern for the Southern Gulf Coast and Panhandle areas of Florida.  This storm is a major Category 4 storm, fed by 85+° F Gulf Stream and in some places 90°F water.  NOAA is citing several weather patterns they are tracking responsible for the extreme difficulty in track forecasting.

As you can imagine, with so many complex variables in play, it is no wonder the models have been having a difficult time nailing down the path of the hurricane. -- 11 PM Discussion, NOAA

It would seem that we will have to watch this storm play-by-play until final landfall.  The most destructive force to the storm would be to trail inland Florida and into Georgia.  However, the danger to life and property with a storm this size is extreme. Various news outlets are considering the possibility Dorian will be the largest storm to have made landfall in Florida since Andrew.

There is a small amount of discussion over the intensity forecast.  There is a possibility Dorian will ingest dry air from the North, causing it not to grow as strong.  However, the weaker model still places it as a major cyclone on landfall.

Dorian forces of destruction will include tidal surge, massive rainfall, excessively strong sustained winds.  Mass power-outages and cessation of multiple services can be expected.  Category 4 is no joke.  If you are in the path of this storm, may God be with you.  If you can, leave.

Below are slideshows of the growth of the storm as well as collected Satellite Images.

2019082610-Dorian5DayTrack
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2019082905-CarribeanGeoColor
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Dorian - Thu Aug 29 05:21:52 CDT 2019

Much more information than these bullets is contained in the link if you choose to follow it.

  • Intensity forecast to reach 125 mph, Category 3 or higher prior to landfall at Florida's East Coast
  • Tracking guidance is slowing and gaining confidence - Probable landfall between Port St. Lucie and  Vero Beach.
  • Path after entering the Gulf of Mexico, remains a question.

5 am AST (4 am CST) Aug. 29, 2019, Dorian Projected 5-day Path

From NOAA as of 4 am CST, August 29, 2019

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  29/0900Z 20.5N  66.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  29/1800Z 21.9N  67.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  30/0600Z 23.7N  69.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  30/1800Z 25.1N  70.6W  100 KT 115 MPH
 48H  31/0600Z 26.0N  72.5W  105 KT 120 MPH
 72H  01/0600Z 27.0N  76.4W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  02/0600Z 27.5N  79.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  03/0600Z 28.0N  81.5W   75 KT  85 MPH...INLAND

Above is the tracking guidance provided by the National Hurricane Center as of 4 am CST, Aug. 29, 2019 for Dorian.  As compared to 24 hours ago, the track consensus has moved further south and the confidence has increased.  There is still divergence on Day 5, during which time it will be on inland Florida.  Exactly where is in question. Nevertheless, Dorian is projected to make landfall at Category 3 status packing 125 mph sustained winds.  Category 4 is only 5 mph more at 130 mph.

Dorian is currently experiencing light upper-level shear.  However, in the next 24 hours, the shear is expected to no longer be a factor and with Dorian passing over the warm Gulf Stream, storm strength is expected to grow quickly.  Some models place it above the forecasted strength of 125 mph, giving the storm a possible Category 4 label.

Below, you may watch an animation of the 5-Day Tracks from NOAA and notice how they change over time and view a satellite image of the Caribbean, showing Dorian

2019082610-Dorian5DayTrack
2019090307-CarribeanGeoColor
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