Dorian - Sun Sep 1 06:58:44 DST 2019

  • Potential stalling in the next 24 hours, waiting for that turn to the north
  • Forecast strength to be 2 MPH from Category 5 status at 6 pm CST.
  • Path confidence growing, but still not specific.  It's like playing pool with a bowling ball.  Dorian may not get the 8-ball in the corner pocket, but it'll shatter 4 or 5 balls in its path.


INIT  01/0900Z 26.4N  76.0W  130 KT 150 MPH
 12H  01/1800Z 26.6N  77.1W  135 KT 155 MPH
 24H  02/0600Z 26.7N  78.1W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  02/1800Z 26.9N  78.7W  120 KT 140 MPH
 48H  03/0600Z 27.0N  79.0W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  04/0600Z 28.9N  79.8W  100 KT 115 MPH
 96H  05/0600Z 31.8N  79.6W   85 KT 100 MPH
120H  06/0600Z 34.5N  76.0W   80 KT  90 MPH


Key Messages:

  • A prolonged period of life-threatening storm surge, devastating hurricane-force winds, and heavy rains capable of producing life-threatening flash floods are expected on the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama through Monday, and a hurricane warning is in effect for these areas.
  • A tropical storm warning is now in effect for a portion of the Florida east coast. Since Dorian is forecast to slow down and turn northward as it approaches the coast, life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are still possible along portions of the Florida east coast by the middle part of this week. Residents should have their hurricane plan in place, know if they are in a hurricane evacuation zone, and listen to advice given by local emergency officials.
  • There is an increasing risk of strong winds and dangerous storm surge along the coasts of Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week. Residents in these areas should continue to monitor the progress of Dorian.
  • Heavy rains, capable of producing life-threatening flash floods, are possible over coastal sections of the southeast and lower mid-Atlantic regions of the United States through late this week.

Hurricane Dorian Discussion Number 32
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

Dorian continues to exhibit a well-defined eye surrounded by very cold cloud tops on satellite images. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft from several hours ago indicated that the intensity was still near 130 kt, and since the cloud pattern remains very impressive, it is assumed that Dorian has at least maintained that strength through the present time. The hurricane will remain in a fairly low-shear environment for the next few days, however since it is forecast to move quite slowly over the shallow waters of the northwestern most Bahamas through
Monday, this would likely result in less available oceanic heat content. Therefore, a very slow weakening is anticipated to commence after 12 hours or so. The official intensity forecast is near the high end of the numerical guidance suite.

The hurricane continues moving westward, or about 280/7 kt. A high pressure ridge to the north of Dorian should maintain this westward movement through today. By tonight, the global models show the ridge weakening, and this evolution should result in a slowing of the forward speed, with the hurricane becoming nearly stationary
around 48 hours. In comparison to its earlier runs, the new ECMWF track forecast takes the system farther to the west during the next couple of days, and is the southwesternmost model through 48 hours. As a result, the official track forecast has been shifted a little west during that time frame. In 2 to 4 days, Dorian should turn
northward in response to a trough over the eastern United States. By the end of the period, the flow on the south side of the trough should cause the cyclone to move northeastward near the Carolinas.

The westward shift of the NHC track within the first 48 hours necessitates the change from a Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for a portion of the Florida east coast. Although the official track forecast does not show landfall, users should not focus on the exact track since a Florida landfall is still a distinct possibility.

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2019 Dorian - Sat Aug 31 06:01:20 CDT 2019 - Storm Intensifies, Track Modified

  • Projected Track Skirting East Coast of Florida
  • Projected Intensity Increased to 145 mph, Category 4

From NHC, 5 am.

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INIT  31/0900Z 25.8N  72.6W  120 KT 140 MPH
 12H  31/1800Z 26.1N  74.0W  125 KT 145 MPH
 24H  01/0600Z 26.5N  75.8W  125 KT 145 MPH
 36H  01/1800Z 26.7N  77.2W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  02/0600Z 26.9N  78.1W  120 KT 140 MPH
 72H  03/0600Z 27.5N  79.4W  115 KT 130 MPH
 96H  04/0600Z 29.5N  80.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
120H  05/0600Z 32.0N  80.5W   95 KT 110 MPH


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