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2018 Gordon, Sep 4, 4 am Analysis

As you can see by the images below, the track and projected landfall remain the same.  NOAA estimates of a minimal category one storm upon landfall remains.  Although it is considered "minimal" realize there remain potential for life-threatening conditions closer to Gulfport, MS.

Gordon is experiencing significant westerly wind-shear of 55 kts.  The result is considerable portion of the rainfall, wind and other destructive forces will remain on the eastern quadrants of Gordon.

cone graphic
4 am Tracking Estimate
https://i1.wp.com/cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/gm/08/1000x1000.jpg?w=640&ssl=1
Water Vapor

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2018 Gordon - NOAA Imagery as of 2 am Sept. 4th

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Sep. 3, 9 pm Analysis of TS Gordon


Based on the following data, I don't predict much of a issue for Terrebonne Parish:

1)  40 mph (Tropical Storm Force) Winds are projected to extend 0 miles Southwest of the storm.
2) Landfall is near Gulfport, Ms.  Midnight, Monday/Tuesday
3) As you can see by the imagery below, there is a ridge of dry air to the west of Gordon.  Most of the cloud formations are not on the Western side of the storm.
4) Storm surge is forecast west to Dauphin Island.

Although the storm is projected to be a category I storm at landfall, Gulfport is nearly 130 miles east of Houma.  The winds are forecast to be on the eastern side of the storm.  Nearly no winds to the West.

In brevity:  Winds, rain and surge are projected to the East of the storm, almost none to the West.  Landfall is more than 130 miles away.  Houma, should be safe.

More analysis will be done in 6 hours at the next formal data release from NOAA, at 4 am, Tuesday.

Jay C. "Jazzy_J" Theriot

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