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Sep. 11, 2018 - Florence, Helene, Isaac and two areas of interest

The Atlantic Basin is ACTIVE. This morning, we are taking a peek at a number of storms including Florence which is an imminent threat to the Eastern US Seaboard.

As you can see in the overview of the Atlantic, we have multiple issues, including a new threat to the Gulf Coast of Texas.

Historically, storms forming off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula are difficult to forecast due to their rapid development and short creation-to-landfall timeline.

Currently forecast to make landfall as a category 4 storm, Florence has the potential to be a killer and a considerable destructive force to the Eastern Seaboard.

Isaac will be a threat to the Gulf of Mexico late next week if it can hold itself together.  Only time will tell.  Watching Isaac traverse the Caribbean Sea is a must.

Helene will be a fish storm, that is, the only threat it will pose are to objects at sea.

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2018 June 16th, Building Disturbance in the GOM

Building storm in the GOM

It's way to early to make any predictions about this baby. There is a good deal of uncertainty surrounding this storm. It has a 20% chance of development in the next two days. However, having no center of circulation, position estimates are problematic. If you can't get an accurate center position, then you can't get an accurate track estimate.

With this storm developing so close, it could surprise us. However, the good thing is with it developing so close, it should not be able to experience excessive growth.

Every time I say something about a small storm, I think of 1985 Hurricane Juan that took everything I had.

The following is from the National Hurricane Center

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low over the western
Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage since this morning. Recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a surface
circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the
north of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to
support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today
and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

Forecaster Zelinsky

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