I'm going to remove the Global Tracking site (https://weather.jayscafe.net) from public access. It will be redirected to my core site: http://jayctheriot.com.
A few days into the hurricane season, Unisys, my data feed, changed how data was accessed from their page. This is forcing a re-write of the data mining portion of my system. This is a critical portion of the system as it grants me the ability to track global storms easily.
I have identified new data feeds. Unfortunately, my neurological issues are hitting me really hard as of late and I possess neither the physical or mental ability to move forward with the reconstruction of the website.
I do plan on re-releasing the site in the future. However, for now, I must take it slow.
I will continue to manually track and blog on the storms in the GOM and Atlantic regions. But, for now the automatic tracking is off.
Just taking a glance at my astronomy program, XEphem shows that tonight Jupiter and the Moon should be close together and high in the sky at about 8:30 pm.
The weather should be clear.
All this tells me that tonight should be a great time to put your phone down, go out side, see the Moon, and the bright star next to it. Only, that bright star will not be a star, it will be the planet Jupiter, in all his glory.
It's way to early to make any predictions about this baby. There is a good deal of uncertainty surrounding this storm. It has a 20% chance of development in the next two days. However, having no center of circulation, position estimates are problematic. If you can't get an accurate center position, then you can't get an accurate track estimate.
With this storm developing so close, it could surprise us. However, the good thing is with it developing so close, it should not be able to experience excessive growth.
Every time I say something about a small storm, I think of 1985 Hurricane Juan that took everything I had.
The following is from the National Hurricane Center
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Sat Jun 16 2018
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a surface trough
near the Yucatan Peninsula and an upper-level low over the western
Gulf of Mexico has increased in coverage since this morning. Recent
satellite-derived surface wind data indicate that a surface
circulation does not exist, but strong winds are occuring to the
north of the trough. Environmental conditions are not expected to
support significant development, however, heavy rains and gusty
winds are likely to spread across the central Gulf of Mexico today
and will reach portions of the Texas and southwestern Louisiana
coasts on Sunday. For more details on this system please see
products issued by your local weather office and High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.